After Historic Fall in 2020, Carbon Emissions are Rebounding Fast

COVID-19-related restrictions in 2020 caused the largest drop in carbon -dioxide emissions from energy use since World War II. As lockdowns ended and economic activity started again, by December, worldwide emissions were 2%, or 60 million tonnes, higher than the same month in 2019, according to new data from the International Energy Agency.

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What is Happening?

1. Emissions from energy fell by about 2 billion metric tons, of 5.8% in 2020, from the previous year, the equivalent of removing all of the EU’s emissions from the global total, according to the authors. 

2. Both the U.S. and EU saw emissions fall by 10%, with the steepest reductions seen in March, April and May. China was the only large economy that saw emissions increase, by 0.8% on an annual basis. Much of that rise came toward the end of the year. China’s emissions were 7% higher in December 2020 than they were in December 2019.

3. In India, emissions rose above 2019 levels from September as economic activity improved and restrictions were relaxed. In Brazil, the rebound of road transport activity after the April low drove a recovery in oil demand, while increases in gas demand in the later months of 2020 pushed emissions above 2019 levels throughout the final quarter.

4. The biggest drop in energy-use emissions came from transportation. The decline in oil use contributed more than half of the overall total, with half of that coming from road traffic and another 35% from grounded airplanes.

The authors write, “In March 2020, the IEA urged governments to put clean energy at the heart of their economic stimulus plans to ensure a sustainable recovery. But our numbers show we are returning to carbon-intensive business-as-usual. This year is pivotal for international climate action – and it began with high hopes – but these latest numbers are a sharp reminder of the immense challenge we face in rapidly transforming the global energy system.”

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1. Thankfully, electricity generated from solar and wind power reached a record 20% of the global energy mix for the first time, and electric vehicles sold in record numbers.

2. As the world recovers from the pandemic, the IEA is concerned about a post-pandemic boom in carbon emissions. The speed with which energy demand returned as pandemic restrictions lifted “underscores the risk that carbon emissions will increase significantly this year,” the IEA wrote.

3. Scientists estimate that emissions would have to plummet by 10% for the year before scientists could detect the reduction in the CO₂ concentration of the atmosphere, which has risen every year for decades. 

Dr Fatih Birol, the IEA Executive Director, says, “If current expectations for a global economic rebound this year are confirmed-  and in the absence of major policy changes in the world’s largest economies- global emissions are likely to increase in 2021. Nonetheless, there are still reasons for optimism. China has set an ambitious carbon-neutrality target; the new US administration has rejoined the Paris Agreement and is putting climate at the heart of its policy-making; the European Union is pushing ahead with its Green Deal and sustainable recovery plans; India’s stunning success with renewables could transform its energy future; and the United Kingdom is building global momentum toward stronger climate action at COP26 in November.”

Featured image by: Flickr